2026 Trade Deadline Mailbag
by Alora Shaw - Trade Rumors/Token Female Hire
Hiya, Carpers! With the trade deadline approaching (this Friday 11 PM CST!), I thought it would be a great time to bring in some mailbag questions!
Hi, Alora! You wrote last week about some rumors around Jack Leiter; do you think the Carp are going to get this to happen? --Jacob, Cuba, IL
My sources are starting to cool on this. It sounds like the uncertainty around the duration of Leiter's injury is a real hang-up. Starting pitching is valuable and tough to trade for, maybe doubly so as we approach the stretch run. Whether Leiter will pitch again or not this season makes it immensely difficult to land on the correct valuation --a valuation that is already complicated by Leiter's injury and performance history. Everyone is waiting for him to take the next step --and he very well may-- but until he does, it's unlikely someone overpays for him. And without an overpay, it's unlikely an owner will trade his ceiling at a discount.
Are the Carp going to make more deals between now and Friday? What's your over/under on the number? -- Allen, Newport, RI
I would say yes. Though they have been extremely active on the trade market this year --trading Carter Jensen, Chris Sale, Ben Brown, George Springer, Ryan Weathers, Pete Fairbanks, Matt Brash, etc.-- I think there might be more ammunition in the clip. Not all of those trades worked equally well mind you, but I think the honest assessment is that the overall grade of the trades they have executed is quite high. That being said, I don't see any more blockbusters. I think the most likely outcome is a piece or two --likely pitchers-- will go in minor deals as contenders flex ahead of the stretch run. I think the over/under is 2.5 moves.
This team was cruising in the first half; they looked like a huge surprise team before the Judge, Murakami, and Baldwin trio of injuries hit. But now with Murakami and Baldwin back, why have they continued to slide? --Mike, Carbondale, IL
They really were; I think it was surprising to even the front office at how good and cohesive the team felt, but it's important to dig a little deeper there. Even throughout that first half, they weren't toppling the best. They got pounded by Richmond (5-8-1), Caw Valley (4-9-1), TJB (2-12), and Winchester (4-8-2), which is almost the current playoff lineup. Illinois took it to Nashville pretty hard (11-3), but it was pretty clear they were a step below the big dogs even before the injuries. I think that reality was what led to the consistent sell-off since. And to the Carp's credit, they've stockpiled draft capital (3 1sts and a 2nd now in both 2027 and 2028, including the #2 and #3 pick for 2027), and long term pieces like Eury Perez, Dylan Crews, Dax Kilby, and Ramon Marquez from those trades, which is in addition to constant waiver wire pickups. The team is set up to be a force in the next few years and Carp nation should be excited.
Why did they cut Cam Smith? I know he was struggling, but could they really not find any trade partner for him? Not even like a 3rd round draft pick? -- Nate, Kankakee, IL
The trade market for Cam was brutally quiet from everything I heard. And given how high-end the Carp prospect group is, they really aren't looking for low draft picks or a fringe roster piece --I think they would rather just pickup a free agent prospect of their choice rather than be pigeonholed into having to accept a piece they don't really want. Cutting Smith was just way more efficient. They were also under a time crunch because Kyle Karros was returning from injury. Not everyone agrees from the outside, but they are high on Karros and were not going to lose him in order to hang onto Smith. Tough business, but just how it is.
Ryan Zeferjahn seems like a risky pickup at the expense of Christian Zazueta. --Jimbo, Rockford, IL
It is, but there are two considerations. First, the Carp are overloaded with prospects because of their approach to rostering in this expansion year. It has gotten quite difficult to drop any of their prospects, so they had to make a cut somewhere. I think in a perfect world, they'd like to trade one or two more just to clear the excess. Second, they are really leaning into this bullpen-first structure. It's so difficult for an expansion team to build a deep SP rotation that is 10 deep with quality arms. Zeferjahn may or may not be what they hope --they are hoping for high leverage over the long term, maybe some closing with high-k performance-- but they have to take swings like this, otherwise they are stuck paying the same high price for closers they are trying to avoid having to pay for starting pitching. We'll see if it works.